The Rundown: By the time I finish writing this sentence I might change my mind about who will win the AL Central. Yeah, I did. Actually, maybe not. Well, it’s tough when you look at it for a third time. Boy, this is confusing. Let’s take a deeper look…

ESPN projects that the White Sox will finish last in the Central in 2009. I predict the White Sox will finish first.

2008 Finish 2009 Projected Finish Chicago 89-74 Chicago 88-74 Minnesota 88-75 Minnesota 86-76 Cleveland 81-81 Kansas City 80-82 Kansas City 75-87 Cleveland 79-83 Detroit 74-88 Detroit 77-85

Although we are at polar opposites, I can’t argue with ESPN because Chicago could conceivably finish first, last, or anywhere in between. The AL Central is the most wide-open race in all of baseball. The White Sox are fresh off a division championship in which they had to play a 163rd game just to get into the playoffs. They lost to the Rays in the ALDS but 2008 was largely considered a tremendous success for the Southsiders.

On paper it appears as if the Sox have taken two steps backwards after their leap forward last year, but, as we all know, looks can be deceiving. The 2008/2009 Chicago off-season can best be described as “addition by subtraction”. Gone from the ’08 squad is clubhouse cancer Orlando Cabrera, who constantly feuded with manager Ozzie Guillen. Nick Swisher and his .219 average no longer pollute the sox balanced lineup, Juan Uribe’s philosophy of swing if it’s in the same zip code exists no longer, and Joe Crede’s constant back pains are now Minnesota’s burden. The best part about Swisher’s departure actually might be that Chicagoland no longer has to endure that awful “Dye with the Catch, Swish’ with the worm” commercial that ran about 18,796,885,121 times throughout the 2008 season.

Now let’s delve into what the White Sox DO have. They DO have a budding All Star in John Danks (12-9, 3.32 ERA in 2008). They DO have Mr. Workhorse Mark Buehrle, who won 15 games in an off year. They DO have Gavin Floyd, fresh off a 17-win season and recently inked to a four-year, $15.5 million contract. And they added Bartolo Colon, who is half the man he used to be but, when healthy, still twice as good as the standard number four or five pitcher. This rotation is nothing to laugh at, and has a solid chance of containing three pitchers with 15 wins by the end of 2009.

At the plate, the Sox have as well rounded a lineup as anyone. Their 3-4-5 hitters (Carlos Quentin, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye) combined for 102 homers in 2008, and that was with Quentin missing the last month of the season. Quentin actually smacked the most on the team with 36, so figure he easily could have hit 40 if not for the broken wrist. Paul Konerko hit just .240 last season, but taking into account the fact that he hit .270 in the second-half you can feel pretty good about him hitting around .260 this year.

Shortstop Alexei Ramirez looks like a starving child, but hit only one less home run (21) than Konerko (22) did in 2008. Plus, Ramirez swiped 13 bags. By the end of this season, many will consider him to be a top-five shortstop in the AL.

Most of all, watch out for the Cuban Muscle Dayan Viciedo. Viciedo will start the year at AAA Birmingam, but it won’t be long before his name is called. He’ll be in the majors sooner rather than later if Josh Fields faulters.
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As was previously mentioned, the White Sox and Twins went into a playoff play-in game at the conclusion of the 2008 regular season. In 2009, the Twins are an even stronger threat to win the division. They have a lineup that screams potential and a rotation that didn’t get down after losing Johan Santana last year.

Joe Mauer will miss at least the first two weeks of April, possibly more. This will force the Twins to come out strong and play that much harder to make up for his absence. Right fielder Denard Span and second baseman Alexi Casilla give the team great pop at the top of their order. 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau played in all 163 games in 2008, batting .300 with 23 home runs and 129 RBI. Expect similar numbers with a few more roundtrippers this time around.

The rotation gives Minnesota a solid mix of lefty’s and righty’s with Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Glenn Perkins, and Nate Blackburn. The Twins will actually start the season without Baker, who was recently placed on the 15-day DL with shoulder stiffness, but the injury doesn’t appear to be anything major and he should return healthy with no problems.

Liriano, back from Tommy John surgery in 2007, had a trying 2008 where the Twins would not call him up even though he felt he had served his time in the minors. With Baker out, Liriano is now the team’s opening day starter. Look for him to play more and more like the pitcher who posted a 2.16 ERA with 144 K’s in 121 IP in 2006.
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Kansas City is going to turn heads this year. The Royals managed to win 75 games in 2008, and not finish last. In 2009, look for 3B Alex Gordon to explode. He has been relatively disappointing thus far, but has torn up spring training (.338 average with six home runs) and is looking very close to the guy the Royals drafted. Adding Coco Crisp (.344 OBP and 20 stolen bases in 2008) gives KC a major spark plug leading off games.

You may not know it, but Mike Jacobs hit 32 home runs while driving in 93 last year. He will split first base and DH duties with Billy Butler, who batted .275. Jose Guillen in the middle of the order is also good for around 20-25 home runs.

Gil Meche might be the best player that you don’t know is making $11 million. Meche not only won 14 games in 2008, but also fanned close to eight batters per nine innings. Outside of him and Zach Greinke (13-10, 3.47 ERA, 183 K’s in 2008) the rotation could use some work. But don’t sleep on Kyle Davies, a guy who went 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA last September. And, if the Royals have a lead late, they will win. Joakim Soria saved 42 games and posted an astounding 1.60 ERA last season.
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The Cleveland Indians are coming off of a most disappointing 2008. After winning 96 games and making it to the 2007 ALCS, the Indians finished at .500 last season. Cliff Lee was phenomenal, however, winning 22 games and the AL Cy Young. Lee won’t win 22 again, but even if he struggles he will still win 15 games. The team needs Fausto Carmona to be the Fausto Carmona of 2007, a 19-game winner. Not someone who gives up nearly five and a half runs a game, as he did last season.

After those two, it gets a bit tougher for the Indians. Any rotation that includes Carl Pavano as its third starter is one that you should doubt. Pavano made a combined 26 starts from 2005 to 2008 with the Yankees, 17 of which came in 2005. If Cleveland is planning on banking on him, they have another thing coming.

Trading for Mark DeRosa will prove to be the most underrated signing of this past off-season. His value is far too underappreciated. Not only did he bat .289 with 159 RBIs over the last two seasons with the Cubs, he also hit .333 in two postseasons. That’s better than Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, AND Derrek Lee.

RF Shin-Soo Choo and C Kelly Shoppach will emerge as stars for the Indians.
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No one could have foreseen the Detroit Tigers playing the way they did last season. After starting the year 0-8, they never fully recovered and found themselves playing out of a hole the rest of the way, finally finishing dead last in the Central. This team is good, though, and there is no reason to think they can’t turn it around with a lineup that includes Curtis Granderson (.280/22/66 in 2008), Magglio Ordonez (.317/21/103 in 2008), Miguel Cabrera (.292/37/127 in 2008), and Marcus Thames (25 home runs in 103 games in 2008).

As was the problem last year, the question mark this year sits on the starting five. Justin Verlander needs to come back strong after an abysmal 2008. Verlander fell from an 18-game winner in 2007, to a 17-game loser in 2008. He has worked on a new approach, pitching more in a ¾ manner than his usual over the top method. But more than anything, he is going to need a third pitch--a heater and a curveball is not enough.

The Tigers also have some closer issues heading into the season. It appeared Brandon Lyon would get the job, but after a poor spring, manager Jim Leyland has given the role to Fernando Rodney. Neither pitcher is very effective, so this may end up being a closer-by-committee situation, which hasn’t worked well for teams in recent memory.

Once again, I will say that anyone can finish anywhere in the AL Central. There is a lot of upside to each team, but a lot of downside as well. Parity reigns supreme, and this division could end up with five teams with 80 wins, AND a wildcard winner.

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