The Rundown: After the Cubs, slots two through five in the NL Central are anyone’s guess. This is one of the weaker divisions in baseball, being filled with average teams that are each missing a few pieces. How it shapes up may be more dependent on surprise players with breakout seasons than seasoned veterans already in place.

I hate to say it, but the Chicago Cubs will not win the World Series in 2009. They will win the Central for sure, but another first round exit is not out of the question. The Billy Goat will be out and about, rummaging through the Friendly Confines in an effort to ensure the drought continues to a 102nd year.

The main reason the Cubs will not go all the way in 2009 is the departure of Mark DeRosa. I am not lying when I say I shudder every time I think of him not being on the team anymore. GM Jim Hendry traded DeRosa to clear cap space in what looked like a maneuver to bring in Peavy, but no such trade was made.

Instead, the Cubs signed Milton Bradley for MORE money than what DeRosa was making. Don’t get me wrong, I think Bradley is a great player, but he will not fully defray the loss of DeRosa. He did lead the league in OPS (.436) and have career highs in home runs (22) and RBIs (77) in 2008, but if the Cubs were trying to improve their team, they should have taken a closer look at DeRosa’s numbers. The now Cleveland Indian hit one less home run, had ten more RBIs, and scored 25 more times (103 to 78) than Milton Bradley.

Bradley’s advantage is that he bats from the left side, and skipper Lou Piniella wanted a more balanced lineup heading into this season, but Sweet Lou is going to find a major imbalance two to three months into the season when he realizes Milton Bradley is the equivalent of throwing stones at a glass house. He played in only 126 games last year, and that was as a DH. Throw him in the outfield everyday and that number probably drops to around 100. The most times he has played in a season are 141 games with L.A. in 2004, and he followed that year with 75 and 96-game seasons, respectively, in 2005 and 2006.

Piniella will also be pulling out his remaining hairs when he finds out he no longer has a guy who will play any of five different positions upon request, no questions asked. And, as a cherry on top, DeRosa drove in four of the Cubs six total runs in the ’08 NLDS.

That’s my two cents on the Mark DeRosa trade (can you tell I’m angry?), now let’s talk about what’s good about the ’09 Cubs. The rotation is one of the best in baseball, but a few things need to happen for that statement to remain true. Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96 ERA, 206.2 IP in 2008) must prove that last season was not a fluke. His performance in spring (3.29 ERA) suggests he will be on top of his game in 2009.

Carlos Zambrano needs to tighten all the loose screws in his head and be the ace that he’s supposed to be. After throwing a no-hitter against the Astros on September 14th, he failed to make it out of the second inning against the Cardinals on September 19th, allowing 8 runs. Then, in game two of the NLDS, he was the victim of four Cubs errors, allowing seven runs, but only three earned. Still, a truly great pitcher gets past the errors and doesn’t allow a bases clearing double to Russell Martin, as he did.

The Cubs have a full year of Rich Harden in 2009, which could be good, bad, or ugly. He stayed healthy down the stretch last season, but Harden is more of an injury liability than Milton Bradley. The Cubs will have to monitor his pitch counts early in the year if he is to last an entire summer. If he does stay healthy, watch out. Harden is among the best in the league when he’s at full strength.

Ted Lilly won 17 games in 2009, giving him three straight seasons of 15 or more wins. His overall ERA (4.09) was a bit high, but if you take a look at his post All-Star break numbers (3.33 ERA and .223 opponents’ BA) you can fully appreciate what he did last season.

In a surprise move by Lou Piniella, Kevin Gregg has been named the closer for the Chicago Cubs. Marmol had the lower ERA (2.68 to 3.41) and blew only two saves compared to Gregg’s nine. I don’t really have a problem with this move, however. Here’s why: Marmol did a phenomenal job as a set-up man last season and performed just as admirably when called upon to close. But, he was responsible for the Dominican Republic’s upset loss the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic. Marmol was ecstatic at the chance to represent his country in the tournament, and likely felt like he had hit the pits after letting his country down. If Marmol starts the season as closer with an already low confidence level, and then proceeds to blow a save in mid-April, he will spiral into an unrecoverable tailspin. Opening the year setting up in the seventh and/or eighth innings allows him to bide some time and regain his poise before eventually getting the closers spot.

The Cubs have shown they can win without Alfonso Soriano in the lineup. But, for the sake of the sanity of the fans, it would be nice if he could just stay away from the DL. Picking up his slack were guys like NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto (.285/23/86 in 2008), Aramis Ramirez (.289/27/111 in 2008), and Ryan Theriot (.322 average, .387 OBP, and 22 SB in 2008). All of these players will put up the same kind of numbers this season, with Soto potentially being a 30 home run, 100 RBI man.

One of the biggest question marks is Kosuke Fukudome. Can he be the player he was in April and May of 2008?

The Cubs will run away with this weak division, but the playoffs might be the same old story.
 

The Cardinals season revolves around Chris Carpenter. Many are expecting him to come back and be close to the guy who won 21 games and the NL Cy Young in 2005. If he doesn’t, the Cardinals will tank.

Adam Wainwright will be the opening day starter and likely will emerge as the ace of the staff. Wainwright won 11 games in only 20 starts in 2008, with a 1.18 whip. The finger injury limited him last year, so expect him to make 30 starts in 2009, and fan a lot of batters in the process.

Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Piniero round out the Cardinals rotation. Lohse had a career best 15 wins and 3.78 ERA in 2008, but has been abysmal this spring, allowing nine home runs. It will be a surprise if he improves upon last year’s numbers—almost every year he has lowered his ERA during his career, he has followed it up the next year with a higher ERA.

When you have Albert Pujols batting third in your lineup you are automatically dangerous. The 2008 NL MVP had 81 extra-base hits and finished with a 1.115 OPS (on base plus slugging) percentage. Left-Fielder Chris Duncan will bat behind him, but may soon lose his job to top prospect Colby Rasmus. Still, Duncan, who played in only 76 games in 2008 due to a neck injury, has potential to hit 30 home runs if he plays the whole way.

It looked like Chris Perez was going to close for St. Louis, but he was recently optioned to AAA Memphis. Jason Motte wowed the coaching staff in spring training with 15 K’s and a 1.74 ERA in only 10 1/3 innings. His upper-90’s fastball is his selling point and inexperience is the only detractor for Motte.
 

The Milwaukee Brewers are reeling after last year. They sold the farm to get C.C. Sabathia, made the playoffs after firing Ned Yost with a week left in the season, and lost in the first round to the Phillies.

The Brewers have gone from C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets being aces 1 and 1-a, to the “Yovani Gallardo and the Four Ring Circus” show. Gallardo, who missed most of 2008 due to knee surgery, is a future Cy Young candidate. In 21 career starts, he has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and 8.14 K/9. In addition, in the NLDS he went seven innings and allowed three unearned runs. Get on the Yovani Gallardo bandwagon before it’s too late!

Sans Gallardo the rotation is filled with uncertainty. Dave Bush is not a great two starter, and Manny Parra is still developing. Recently signed Braden Looper should bring in some wins to help out. The bottom line is that with a so-so rotation at best, the Brewers will be running in place, even with a powerful offense.

The heart of that offense consists of J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Corey Hart. The quad combined to hit 115 homers in 2008, and drive in 373 runs. That accounts for almost 60% of the Brewers’ home runs, and over 50% of the team’s RBIs. This team is stacked offensively. Unfortunately, they don’t have the arms to make a playoff run.
 

Many experts are projecting the Reds to finish third or even as high as second in the NL Central. This is not out of reach for the young team, especially with a 3-4-5 of Joey Votto (.297/24/84 in 2008), Brandon Phillips (.261/21/61 in 2008), and Jay Bruce (.254/21/52 in 2008). The sky is the limit for the right fielder Bruce, who turned 22 on Friday. He launched those 21 dingers in 108 games. Give him a full 162 and he’s got a more than realistic shot at hitting 30 homers. If he brings his average up, he will be among the best outfielders in the NL.

The rotation of Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Micah Owings has more upside to it than any in the league. Harang had an awful 2008, going 6-17, but won 16 games each the previous two seasons. Volquez won 17 games with a 3.21 ERA last year, and struck out 206. Arroyo will give the team 10 to 15 wins, Cueto finished spring with a 1.57 ERA, and if Owings puts it all together he can do some serious damage.

One thing to be weary of with Volquez, however, is the heavy workload he encountered last season. Manager Dusty Baker gave him the Mark Prior treatment and let him throw 100+ pitches in 22 of his 32 starts, including 14 games of at least 110 pitches. This was a major reason why Volquez slowed down so much in the second half (4.60 ERA after All-Star break), and a major cause for concern in 2009.
 

The best news of the Houston Astros off-season was hearing that Miguel Tejada would not be deported. The star shortstop that faced perjury charges is getting a nice athlete treatment and is only on probation.

Tejada hit just 13 home runs in 158 games in 2008, possibly a sign of post-steroid struggles. Speaking of struggles, outfielder Hunter Pence regressed from 2007. In 108 games that year, Pence hit 17 home runs with 69 RBIs, and a .322 average. Last year, in 157 games, Pence hit 25 out of the park, drove in 83 runs, and dropped to a .269 average--not the kind of improvement that was expected of him.

Roy Oswalt is the lone bright spot in a rotation of not so great pitchers. Brandon Backe had a 6.02 ERA in 2008, well enough for last in the National League. Mike Hampton’s career is waning, but he is still eating off of the $121 million contract Colorado gave him in 2000.

Don't discard the Astros completely, though, because no matter how good or bad they are supposed to be, they always manage to sneak into the playoff hunt around August.
 

There may just be a light at the end of the tunnel for the piddling Pittsburgh franchise. Paul Maholm, the team’s opening day starter, posted a 3.71 ERA, and Ross Ohlendorf (acquired in the Xavier Nady trade) finished spring with a 0.87 ERA. If Zach Duke can go back to what he was as a rookie (8-2, 1.81 ERA), the Pirates might just have some success.

At the plate, Pittsburgh has a more than decent offense. Nate McLouth and Adam Laroche hit 26 and 25 home runs, respectively, in 2008. Those two, along with Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Doumit, each hit .270 or better last season. If the Pirates build around these four players, and their pitching develops, they could see some success in the coming years.

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