With two games remaining in the NFL’s regular season, the playoff picture is finally starting to take shape.  Unfortunately for the Bears, the odds are stacked against them. Even if the team peaks and puts together its longest win streak since 2006, they may fail to make the postseason. Chicago can run the table and become just the fifth team since 1990 to miss the playoffs with a 10-6 record.

Here’s the NFC playoff picture as it currently stands:

Division Leaders Wild Card Still Alive

New York (11-3) Dallas (9-5) Atlanta (9-5)

Carolina (11-3) Tampa Bay (9-5) Philadelphia (8-5-1)

Minnesota (9-5) Chicago (8-6)

Arizona (8-6) Washington (7-7)

Chicago’s best chance of reaching the postseason is a division title, but with Minnesota drubbing Arizona in Glendale over the weekend, the Vikings maintained their one-game lead on the Bears and remain one win away from clinching the NFC North.

The hearts of Bears fans were certainly dismayed on Sunday with the Vikings’ key road victory. Riding a conference-best four-game winning streak, the purple squad is playing sound football and shows no signs of letting up.

Hope lingers, though, as the Vikings face two quality opponents (albeit at home) in the remaining weeks: the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants. Despite sharing an identical 9-5 record with Tampa Bay, Atlanta loses the tiebreaker between the two teams and is thus still fighting for a postseason berth. A tightly-wound contest could occur as a result.

New York, two weeks removed from playing with the level of dominance and self-assurance it did most of the season, is currently in a battle with Carolina for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and subsequent home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, with the two teams playing each other this week, that scenario will be resolved by the time the Giants visit the Metrodome. Injury-riddled New York will most likely be resting their starters for most of the week 17 matchup. Still, the Giants are in need of a tune-up after playing their worst two games of the season. They also have a knack for harboring productive backups on their roster. It may be a stretch, but New York will definitely need to test Minnesota’s mettle in the final week, because they will potentially face them in the playoffs. After all, that strategy worked wonders for them last season against New England.

The biggest hurdle to Chicago’s longevity is a lengthy tiebreaking scenario that gives the edge to Minnesota. The only way the squad can beat out the Vikings for the division is by earning a better overall record; thus, the Bears need to win their last two games and hope the Vikings lose their last two.

Here are the different scenarios that show why, even if the Bears win out, they’ll still need some help:

1.) Chicago beats Green Bay and Houston; Minnesota loses to Atlanta, beats New York . . .

Both teams would be tied in many ways: 10-6 overall records, 4-2 in the division, and 8-6 in common games. However, with a week 17 win against the Giants, the Vikings move to 8-4 in the conference, a mark that would surpass the Bears at 7-5.

2.) Chicago beats Green Bay and Houston; Minnesota beats Atlanta, loses to New York . . .

Again, the teams would be deadlocked at 10-6 overall and 4-2 in the division. But, with a victory over the Falcons, the Vikings win the common game record at 9-5 over the Bears at 8-6.

3.) Chicago beats Green Bay and Houston; Minnesota loses to Atlanta and New York . . .

The only road to the NFC North crown. The Bears prevail at 10-6 over the Vikings at 9-7, the latter pondering how they could’ve possibly blown the season in such spectacular fashion.

A wild card berth won’t be any easier to come by. Again, Chicago needs a little luck on its side. Dallas (holding a better conference record) and Tampa Bay (who beat the Bears in week 3) currently hold the two spots with 9-5 records; Chicago would need to beat them outright at 10-6. Let’s not forget about 9-5 Atlanta, either. The Falcons beat the Bears in week 6 on a game-ending field goal. Chicago will need to beat them outright as well. One win by any of those teams this weekend will be a crushing blow to the Bears’ chances.

Because the Bears play Green Bay on Monday night this week, the die may already be cast by the time they trod onto Soldier Field. Regardless, I think the team will be fired up—Green Bay, Monday night, middle of December? Of course they’ll be ready to play. That’s the least they can do.

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